Today: WN 136 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet today WN 136 ABQ 06:05 → LAS 06:46 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 170 ABQ 13:15 → LAS 13:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 136 Southwest	ABQ 06:05	LAS 06:46	2%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 5129 Southwest	ABQ 07:15	LAS 07:54	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4685 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 09:20	LAS 09:55	9%	2%	0.3%	96%
WN 138 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 20:50	LAS 21:25	17%	6%	0.5%	42%
WN 2103 Southwest	ABQ 20:10	LAS 20:49	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4625 Southwest	ABQ 16:55	LAS 17:36	19%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 137 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 18:15	LAS 18:55	19%	6%	0.5%	78%
WN 1871 Southwest	ABQ 10:56	LAS 11:37	20%	4%	0.3%	no record
WN 2441 Southwest	ABQ 13:01	LAS 13:42	30%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 170 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 13:15	LAS 13:50	31%	6%	0.2%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON