Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:43 pm at Albuquerque); 10 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: WN 140 at 20:45, 32%.

Safest bet today WN 140 ABQ 20:45 → LAX 21:50 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest WN 984 ABQ 21:50 → LAX 22:53 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Weather 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 140 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 20:45	LAX 21:50	32%	7%	0.3%	62%
DL 4091 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 18:48	LAX 19:59	33%	8%	0.3%	87%worse than usual
WN 984 Southwest	ABQ 21:50	LAX 22:53	37%	11%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON