tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:55 am at Albuquerque); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 153 at 14:00, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 153 Southwest ABQ 14:00 MDW 17:51 16% 2% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 20:50 → LAS 21:25WN 138 2h 30m Las Vegas LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276 7h 35m 93% 75%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 13:05 → DAL 15:50WN 106 3h 25m Dallas DAL 19:15 → MDW 21:34WN 1415 7h 29m 100% 74%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 12:25 → BNA 16:05WN 285 3h 50m Nashville BNA 19:55 → MDW 21:39WN 647 8h 14m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 14:40 → DEN 16:05WN 120 1h 52m Denver DEN 17:57 → MDW 21:22WN 2565 5h 42m 95% 71%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 16:20 → DAL 19:10WN 107 3h 45m Dallas DAL 22:55 → MDW 01:16 +1WN 1416 7h 56m 100% 71%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 20:45 → LAX 21:50WN 140 2h 05m Los Angeles LAX 23:55 → MDW 05:55 +1WN 2413 8h 10m 92% 70%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 20:10 → SAN 21:00WN 4521 1h 36m San Diego SAN 22:36 → MDW 04:38 +1WN 1511 7h 28m 82% 69%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 14:00 → PHX 14:20WN 148 2h 15m Phoenix PHX 16:35 → MDW 22:01WN 2206 7h 01m 100% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 18:40 → DEN 20:05WN 882 50m Denver DEN 20:55 → MDW 00:21 +1WN 1683 4h 41m 74% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON