tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:32 pm at Albuquerque); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31% (calm day: 15%). Best bet: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 18:11, 87% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ABQ 18:11 → SLC 19:59DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest 6h 39m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 18:15 → LAS 18:55WN 137 3h 26m Las Vegas LAS 22:21 → OAK 00:00 +1WN 4605 6h 45m 99% 60%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 18:40 → DEN 20:05WN 882 2h 05m Denver DEN 22:10 → OAK 23:50WN 1650 6h 10m 93% 58%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 18:10 → PHX 18:30WN 4557 2h 55m Phoenix PHX 21:25 → OAK 23:20WN 3306 6h 10m 95% 50%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 20:50 → LAS 21:25WN 138 1h 20m Las Vegas LAS 22:45 → OAK 00:20 +1WN 596 4h 30m 77% 39%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 20:50 → LAS 21:25WN 138 56m Las Vegas LAS 22:21 → OAK 00:00 +1WN 4605 4h 10m 59% 36%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 18:15 → LAS 18:55WN 137 55m Las Vegas LAS 19:50 → OAK 21:25WN 4270 4h 10m 56% 28%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 18:40 → DEN 20:05WN 882 55m Denver DEN 21:00 → OAK 22:37WN 1700 4h 57m 49% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON