Today: UA 3406 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–25%.

Safest bet today UA 3406 ABQ 07:40 → ORD 11:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1219 ABQ 14:02 → ORD 17:53 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3406 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ABQ 07:40	ORD 11:55	6%	2%	0.2%	91%
UA 1846 United	ABQ 07:43	ORD 11:37	9%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 1193 American	ABQ 07:06	ORD 11:00	11%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 1557 United Flight history →	ABQ 11:40	ORD 15:35	14%	4%	0.2%	63%
UA 365 United Flight history →	ABQ 12:24	ORD 16:29	15%	4%	0.2%	67%
AA 1341 American Flight history →	ABQ 14:13	ORD 18:29	22%	6%	0.2%	49%
AA 1219 American Flight history →	ABQ 14:02	ORD 17:53	25%	6%	0.2%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON