Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:49 am at Albuquerque); 6 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Today: OO 4943 at 12:10 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet today OO 4943 ABQ 12:10 → PHX 12:42 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4317 ABQ 21:45 → PHX 22:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 4943 SkyWest	ABQ 12:10	PHX 12:42	14%	7%	0.3%	no record
MQ 4053 Envoy	ABQ 15:07	PHX 15:29	15%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 1348 American Flight history →	ABQ 11:43	PHX 12:00	21%	8%	0.2%	91%worse than usual
WN 149 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 15:40	PHX 16:00	24%	4%	0.1%	81%
WN 148 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 14:00	PHX 14:20	24%	4%	0.2%	65%
WN 160 Southwest	ABQ 17:31	PHX 17:55	24%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4557 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 18:10	PHX 18:30	24%	4%	0.2%	65%
AA 4913 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 18:48	PHX 19:11	24%	7%	0.5%	76%
WN 4144 Southwest	ABQ 21:20	PHX 21:44	25%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 4727 Southwest	ABQ 22:55	PHX 23:19	25%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 385 Southwest	ABQ 13:05	PHX 12:55	26%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 1351 American Flight history →	ABQ 19:18	PHX 19:38	28%	8%	0.4%	63%
WN 4317 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 21:45	PHX 22:00	28%	6%	0.2%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON