Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:38 am at Albuquerque); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: WN 164 at 19:35, 31%.

Nonstops today


WN 164 Southwest	ABQ 19:35	SAN 20:39	31%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 4521 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 20:10	SAN 21:00	42%	8%	0.6%	35%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ABQ 18:10 → SLC 19:58DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202	6h 40m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	5h 13m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	ABQ 12:25 → SLC 14:11DL 4084 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252	6h 41m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	ABQ 18:48 → LAX 19:59DL 4091 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest	5h 54m	95%	70%
United Details →	ABQ 16:20 → DEN 17:50UA 725	3h 14m Denver	DEN 21:04 → SAN 22:42UA 2395	7h 22m	98%	66%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 18:10 → PHX 18:30WN 4557	3h 25m Phoenix	PHX 21:55 → SAN 23:18WN 3481	6h 08m	97%	62%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 14:40 → DEN 16:05WN 120	2h 50m Denver	DEN 18:55 → SAN 20:15WN 1703	6h 35m	97%	61%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 10:40 → PHX 11:00WN 147	2h 30m Phoenix	PHX 13:30 → SAN 14:53WN 385	5h 13m	100%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ABQ 08:00 → IAH 11:13UA 251	47m Houston	IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399	6h 21m	69%	45%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 10:40 → PHX 11:00WN 147	49m Phoenix	PHX 11:49 → SAN 13:12WN 652	3h 32m	64%	43%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 21:45 → PHX 22:00WN 4317	50m Phoenix	PHX 22:50 → SAN 00:12 +1WN 2921	3h 27m	62%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON