Today: UA 538 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–19%.

Safest bet today UA 538 ABQ 06:00 → SFO 07:36 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1427 ABQ 15:58 → SFO 17:46 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 538 United Flight history →	ABQ 06:00	SFO 07:36	4%	2%	0.2%	92%
OO 5840 SkyWest	ABQ 09:42	SFO 11:44	17%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 1427 United	ABQ 15:58	SFO 17:46	19%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON