Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:15 am at Arcata/Eureka); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: UA 5305 at 18:44, 38%.

Safest bet today UA 5305 ACV 18:44 → SFO 20:07 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time Riskiest UA 2380 ACV 08:22 → SFO 09:40 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Weather 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 5305 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 18:44	SFO 20:07	38%	13%	1.3%	33%
UA 4632 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 16:01	SFO 17:21	40%	14%	1.8%	17%
UA 4655 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 14:05	SFO 15:22	46%	19%	1.4%	57%
UA 2380 United	ACV 08:22	SFO 09:40	48%	16%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON