Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1137 ALB 12:27 → ATL 15:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 1053 ALB 18:54 → ATL 21:39 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 1137 Delta Flight history →	ALB 12:27	ATL 15:00	13%	3%	0.5%	82%
DL 1241 Delta	ALB 18:23	ATL 21:11	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1053 Delta Flight history →	ALB 18:54	ATL 21:39	18%	5%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON