Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today G4 354 ALB 20:53 → BNA 22:32 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 155 ALB 12:55 → BNA 14:15 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G4 354 Allegiant	ALB 20:53	BNA 22:32	15%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 4774 Southwest	ALB 13:15	BNA 14:51	20%	6%	0.5%	no record
G4 324 Allegiant Flight history →	ALB 21:10	BNA 22:29	20%	9%	0.7%	43%
WN 155 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 12:55	BNA 14:15	21%	5%	0.5%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON