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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 167 ALB 06:00 → BWI 07:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 1159 ALB 17:55 → BWI 19:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time
Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 167 Southwest Flight history → ALB 06:00 BWI 07:25 5% 2% 0.6% 100%
WN 4623 Southwest Flight history → ALB 06:05 BWI 07:25 5% 2% 0.6% 91%
WN 168 Southwest Flight history → ALB 09:20 BWI 10:45 5% 2% 0.6% 95%
WN 2458 Southwest Flight history → ALB 09:20 BWI 10:40 6% 2% 0.6% 97%
WN 291 Southwest ALB 14:50 BWI 16:15 8% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 4723 Southwest Flight history → ALB 11:20 BWI 12:40 9% 2% 0.6% 85%
WN 159 Southwest Flight history → ALB 15:00 BWI 16:20 10% 3% 0.6% 67%
WN 648 Southwest ALB 12:30 BWI 13:55 10% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1159 Southwest Flight history → ALB 17:55 BWI 19:15 12% 5% 0.6% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON