Today: AA 1247 at 05:33 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet today AA 1247 ALB 05:33 → CLT 07:42 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2394 ALB 19:03 → CLT 21:18 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1247 American	ALB 05:33	CLT 07:42	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1352 American Flight history →	ALB 11:45	CLT 13:56	19%	4%	0.6%	75%
AA 710 American Flight history →	ALB 11:55	CLT 14:02	20%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 440 American Flight history →	ALB 16:18	CLT 18:27	22%	5%	1.3%	95%worse than usual
AA 3294 American Flight history →	ALB 19:26	CLT 21:39	28%	8%	1.2%	66%
AA 2394 American	ALB 19:03	CLT 21:18	30%	8%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON