Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:06 am at Albany)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 2971 American Flight history →	ALB 07:05	DFW 09:55	15%	5%	0.8%	84%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Albany). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47UA 2225	58m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → DFW 11:29UA 528	6h 19m	94%	82%
American Details →	ALB 07:15 → ORD 08:43AA 4256 · flown by Envoy	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 12:15 → DFW 14:55AA 618	8h 40m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	ALB 17:05 → DTW 18:58DL 3785 · flown by SkyWest	1h 48m Detroit	DTW 20:46 → DFW 22:32DL 1207	6h 27m	94%	78%
United Details →	ALB 08:15 → ORD 10:00UA 4673 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Chicago	ORD 12:20 → DFW 15:03UA 685	7h 48m	96%	78%
American Details →	ALB 05:00 → DCA 06:36AA 5101 · flown by PSA	1h 23m Washington	DCA 07:59 → DFW 10:31AA 1978	6h 31m	92%	76%
American Details →	ALB 06:46 → ORD 08:29AA 3460 · flown by Envoy	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 09:46 → DFW 12:28AA 312	6h 42m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	ALB 06:05 → DTW 07:41DL 2996	54m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746	5h 19m	90%	75%
United Details →	ALB 16:23 → ORD 17:59UA 433	1h 51m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	7h 13m	94%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ALB 19:26 → CLT 21:39AA 3294	54m Charlotte	CLT 22:33 → DFW 00:35 +1AA 2302	6h 09m	71%	52%
Delta Details →	ALB 13:13 → DTW 15:01DL 3810 · flown by SkyWest	49m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → DFW 17:36DL 1543	5h 23m	53%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON