Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3810 ALB 13:13 → DTW 15:01 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 3785 ALB 17:05 → DTW 18:58 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3810 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 13:13	DTW 15:01	15%	5%	0.5%	96%worse than usual
DL 3809 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 16:58	DTW 18:46	16%	5%	0.3%	84%
DL 3785 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 17:05	DTW 18:58	16%	5%	0.3%	66%
DL 5521 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ALB 13:23	DTW 15:17	16%	9%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON