Today: B6 88 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–36%.

Safest bet today B6 88 ALB 07:00 → FLL 10:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest B6 1488 ALB 12:25 → FLL 15:42 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 88 JetBlue Flight history →	ALB 07:00	FLL 10:15	15%	6%	0.6%	74%
B6 87 JetBlue Flight history →	ALB 07:00	FLL 10:14	16%	6%	0.6%	69%
G4 3479 Allegiant Flight history →	ALB 19:53	FLL 23:11	28%	9%	0.7%	43%
B6 1488 JetBlue Flight history →	ALB 12:25	FLL 15:42	36%	14%	0.6%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON