Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4775 ALB 06:50 → MCO 09:56 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2920 ALB 08:40 → MCO 11:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4775 Southwest	ALB 06:50	MCO 09:56	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 162 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 09:55	MCO 12:45	7%	3%	0.7%	81%
B6 2920 JetBlue Flight history →	ALB 08:40	MCO 11:47	9%	6%	1.0%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON