Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 178 ALB 07:20 → MDW 08:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4355 ALB 19:15 → MDW 20:30 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 178 Southwest	ALB 07:20	MDW 08:44	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 163 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 07:40	MDW 08:55	8%	1%	0.6%	93%
WN 164 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 15:20	MDW 16:35	12%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 4355 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 19:15	MDW 20:30	13%	4%	0.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON