Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2225 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2225 ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 538 ALB 17:08 → ORD 18:36 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2225 United Flight history →	ALB 06:10	ORD 07:47	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 3460 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ALB 06:46	ORD 08:29	8%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 1215 United	ALB 09:51	ORD 11:14	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4256 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ALB 07:15	ORD 08:44	9%	2%	0.7%	84%
UA 2825 United Flight history →	ALB 12:20	ORD 13:56	10%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 4673 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 08:15	ORD 10:00	11%	5%	0.6%	83%
UA 463 United	ALB 13:00	ORD 14:12	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 433 United Flight history →	ALB 16:23	ORD 17:59	14%	5%	0.6%	69%
AA 6433 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 19:56	ORD 21:47	14%	8%	0.7%	71%
AA 5004 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 13:18	ORD 15:05	14%	6%	0.7%	75%
OO 6258 SkyWest	ALB 12:26	ORD 13:56	15%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 538 United Flight history →	ALB 17:08	ORD 18:36	20%	6%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON