Today: WN 4076 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet today WN 4076 AMA 10:05 → DAL 11:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4471 AMA 18:25 → DAL 19:40 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4076 Southwest Flight history →	AMA 10:05	DAL 11:20	5%	2%	0.2%	88%
WN 27 Southwest	AMA 11:05	DAL 12:27	7%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4248 Southwest	AMA 14:30	DAL 15:52	11%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 4333 Southwest Flight history →	AMA 15:10	DAL 16:20	17%	3%	0.3%	54%
WN 187 Southwest	AMA 17:45	DAL 19:07	18%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 4471 Southwest Flight history →	AMA 18:25	DAL 19:40	22%	5%	0.5%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON