Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:56 pm at Amarillo); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 18:25, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Amarillo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AMA 18:25 → DAL 19:40WN 4471	3h 05m Dallas	DAL 22:45 → DEN 23:52WN 1397	6h 27m	98%	60%
American Details →	AMA 18:59 → DFW 20:21AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:56 → DEN 00:08 +1AA 2852	6h 09m	98%	50%
American Details →	AMA 19:06 → DFW 20:28AA 3388 · flown by Envoy	2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:45 → DEN 23:50AA 662	5h 44m	96%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON