tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:51 am at Amarillo)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 188 Southwest AMA 13:40 LAS 13:55 17% 3% 0.2% no record
WN 380 Southwest Flight history → AMA 14:20 LAS 14:25 20% 4% 0.2% 62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Amarillo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:41UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Denver DEN 09:46 → LAS 10:52UA 1767 4h 52m 93% 82%
UnitedDetails → AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 28m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 37m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → AMA 06:00 → DFW 07:27AA 3048 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → LAS 09:16AA 1584 5h 16m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → AMA 07:02 → DFW 08:25AA 3780 · flown by Envoy 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:45 → LAS 10:50AA 1132 5h 48m 98% 78%
SouthwestDetails → AMA 18:25 → DAL 19:40WN 4471 3h 05m Dallas DAL 22:45 → LAS 23:35WN 4378 7h 10m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → AMA 17:20 → DEN 18:06UA 4743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Denver DEN 21:03 → LAS 22:11UA 624 6h 51m 96% 74%
SouthwestDetails → AMA 15:10 → DAL 16:20WN 4333 3h 00m Dallas DAL 19:20 → LAS 20:13WN 671 7h 03m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → AMA 10:05 → DAL 11:20WN 4076 2h 39m Dallas DAL 13:59 → LAS 14:50WN 1369 6h 45m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → AMA 18:25 → DAL 19:40WN 4471 50m Dallas DAL 20:30 → LAS 21:15WN 1128 4h 50m 67% 48%
AmericanDetails → AMA 18:59 → DFW 20:21AA 3789 · flown by Envoy 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:08 → LAS 22:00AA 2371 5h 01m 71% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON