Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:26 pm at Anchorage)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Seattle, leaving 17:27, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 416 Delta Flight history →	ANC 20:10	ATL 07:02	29%	8%	0.5%	53%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 17:27 → SEA 21:56DL 928	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 23:13 → ATL 07:06 +1DL 567	9h 39m	83%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ANC 17:27 → SEA 21:56DL 928	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 22:58 → ATL 06:45 +1DL 409	9h 18m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON