Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:21 am at Anchorage)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 16:40, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 36% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 363 United Flight history →	ANC 20:20	EWR 07:26	23%	6%	0.7%	78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ANC 14:05 → SFO 19:48UA 477	1h 27m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698	11h 46m	89%	75%
Alaska Details →	ANC 14:44 → SEA 19:18AS 226	3h 22m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → EWR 06:59 +1AS 314	12h 15m	98%	69%
Alaska Details →	ANC 15:43 → SEA 20:17AS 272	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 22:42 → EWR 06:41 +1AS 395	10h 58m	97%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ANC 15:51 → PDX 20:44AS 2080 · flown by Horizon	47m Portland	PDX 21:31 → EWR 05:59 +1AS 1631	10h 08m	36%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON