Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 362 ANC 22:40 → FAI 23:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 81 ANC 18:35 → FAI 19:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 362 Alaska	ANC 22:40	FAI 23:50	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1722 Alaska	ANC 16:47	FAI 17:58	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 1515 Alaska	ANC 20:32	FAI 21:42	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 1612 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 20:38	FAI 21:42	9%	4%	0.7%	87%
AS 81 Alaska	ANC 18:35	FAI 19:46	10%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON