Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:30 am at Anchorage)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39% (calm day: 27%). Best bet: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 16:40, 49% on time.

Nonstops today


UA 572 United Flight history →	ANC 20:15	IAD 07:12	25%	9%	0.3%	80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ANC 14:05 → SFO 19:48UA 477	3h 31m San Francisco	SFO 23:19 → IAD 07:46 +1UA 2111	13h 41m	96%	76%
Alaska Details →	ANC 14:44 → SEA 19:18AS 226	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367	11h 55m	98%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON