Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:10 am at Anchorage)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 17:23, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops today


AS 1535 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 20:04	JFK 07:18	15%	2%	1.3%	94%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 14:25 → SFO 20:08AS 1561	2h 10m San Francisco	SFO 22:18 → JFK 06:39 +1AS 40	12h 14m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	3h 54m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	12h 38m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	ANC 08:15 → SEA 12:51DL 1656	3h 13m Seattle	SEA 16:04 → JFK 00:06 +1DL 1044	11h 51m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	ANC 15:43 → SEA 20:17AS 272	2h 58m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	11h 55m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:35AS 82	3h 24m Seattle	SEA 13:59 → JFK 21:54AS 34	11h 54m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	54m Seattle	SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415	10h 15m	86%	71%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	1h 02m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	10h 23m	87%	70%
American Details →	ANC 07:00 → DFW 16:42AA 407	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:50 → JFK 22:29AA 1248	11h 29m	90%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON