Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:10 pm at Anchorage)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45% (calm day: 30%). Best bet: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 14:44, 30% on time.

Nonstops today


AS 1636 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 23:59	LAS 06:11	20%	4%	0.6%	83%
WN 4112 Southwest Flight history →	ANC 23:55	LAS 06:00	24%	7%	0.3%	66%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 14:25 → SFO 20:08AS 1561	1h 51m San Francisco	SFO 21:59 → LAS 23:42AS 468	8h 17m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 20:34 → LAS 23:10DL 2949	7h 58m	91%	60%
Alaska Details →	ANC 14:44 → SEA 19:18AS 226	1h 05m Seattle	SEA 20:23 → LAS 22:49AS 768	7h 05m	77%	30%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ANC 14:44 → SEA 19:18AS 226	57m Seattle	SEA 20:15 → LAS 22:55AS 704	7h 11m	64%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON