Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 1540 ANC 21:52 → MSP 06:18 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest DL 377 ANC 22:10 → MSP 06:25 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AS 1540 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 21:52	MSP 06:18	14%	2%	0.7%	98%worse than usual
DL 555 Delta Flight history →	ANC 12:44	MSP 21:00	17%	3%	0.2%	80%
DL 377 Delta Flight history →	ANC 22:10	MSP 06:25	21%	4%	0.7%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON