Today: UA 450 at 20:00 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–33%.

Safest bet today UA 450 ANC 20:00 → ORD 05:18 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1354 ANC 21:57 → ORD 07:19 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 450 United Flight history →	ANC 20:00	ORD 05:18	19%	3%	1.0%	87%
UA 834 United Flight history →	ANC 23:59	ORD 09:19	23%	3%	1.0%	82%
AS 1724 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 21:24	ORD 06:40	25%	3%	0.7%	84%
AS 1543 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 23:15	ORD 08:29	28%	3%	0.7%	71%
AA 1354 American Flight history →	ANC 21:57	ORD 07:19	33%	4%	0.9%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	1h 20m Seattle	SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108	8h 56m	79%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON