Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 267 ANC 11:54 → PDX 16:33 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 1407 ANC 09:02 → PDX 13:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 267 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 11:54	PDX 16:33	10%	2%	0.4%	94%
AS 1324 Alaska	ANC 11:56	PDX 16:39	11%	3%	0.4%	no record
AS 1567 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 09:10	PDX 13:48	11%	2%	0.4%	92%
AS 1609 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 16:09	PDX 20:48	11%	3%	0.3%	75%
AS 1407 Alaska	ANC 09:02	PDX 13:48	11%	2%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON