Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:40 pm at Anchorage); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: AS 1550 at 23:06 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops today


AS 1550 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 23:06	PHX 05:38	13%	3%	0.4%	92%
AA 2991 American Flight history →	ANC 23:44	PHX 06:22	26%	7%	0.5%	68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON