Today: DL 853 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet today DL 853 ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 595 ANC 12:24 → SEA 16:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 853 Delta Flight history →	ANC 06:00	SEA 10:40	13%	3%	0.2%	89%
AS 48 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 07:00	SEA 11:33	14%	3%	1.0%	88%
DL 833 Delta	ANC 07:58	SEA 12:32	14%	2%	0.2%	no record
DL 1656 Delta Flight history →	ANC 08:15	SEA 12:51	15%	2%	0.2%	95%
DL 922 Delta Flight history →	ANC 14:12	SEA 18:46	17%	3%	0.2%	89%
DL 2768 Delta Flight history →	ANC 11:42	SEA 16:20	17%	3%	0.3%	95%worse than usual
DL 928 Delta Flight history →	ANC 17:27	SEA 21:56	18%	3%	0.7%	82%
AS 1333 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 19:08	SEA 23:43	18%	3%	0.7%	78%
AS 1518 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 18:02	SEA 22:37	19%	4%	0.7%	80%
AS 315 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 09:05	SEA 13:40	20%	3%	1.0%	91%worse than usual
AS 82 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 06:00	SEA 10:35	21%	3%	1.0%	85%
AS 765 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 08:00	SEA 12:35	21%	3%	1.0%	91%worse than usual
AS 402 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 13:00	SEA 17:34	21%	4%	0.9%	85%
AS 651 Alaska	ANC 09:08	SEA 13:40	21%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 268 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 16:40	SEA 21:15	22%	4%	0.7%	86%
AS 544 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 17:23	SEA 21:58	22%	4%	0.7%	78%
AS 408 Alaska	ANC 06:05	SEA 10:39	23%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 594 Alaska	ANC 08:03	SEA 12:35	23%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 332 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 11:30	SEA 16:04	24%	3%	1.1%	94%worse than usual
AS 208 Alaska	ANC 17:04	SEA 21:30	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 440 Alaska	ANC 10:23	SEA 14:53	26%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 226 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 14:44	SEA 19:18	26%	4%	0.9%	83%
AS 272 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 15:43	SEA 20:17	26%	4%	0.9%	81%
AS 597 Alaska	ANC 16:01	SEA 20:32	26%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 1417 Alaska	ANC 14:39	SEA 19:09	26%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 363 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 12:15	SEA 16:49	27%	3%	1.1%	97%worse than usual
AS 595 Alaska	ANC 12:24	SEA 16:55	30%	4%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON