tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:16 am at Anchorage); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Portland, leaving 11:54, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ANC 11:54 → PDX 16:33AS 267 3h 35m Portland PDX 20:08 → SLC 23:03AS 730 9h 09m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → ANC 12:12 → DEN 19:29UA 1153 1h 36m Denver DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest 8h 32m 95% 71%
DeltaDetails → ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768 3h 30m Seattle SEA 19:50 → SLC 22:55DL 1239 9h 13m 95% 64%
UnitedDetails → ANC 14:05 → SFO 19:48UA 477 1h 06m San Francisco SFO 20:54 → SLC 23:59UA 5753 · flown by SkyWest 7h 54m 84% 61%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 12:15 → SEA 16:49AS 363 2h 18m Seattle SEA 19:07 → SLC 22:14AS 3298 · flown by SkyWest 7h 59m 100% 56%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 13:00 → SEA 17:34AS 402 3h 11m Seattle SEA 20:45 → SLC 23:46AS 669 8h 46m 100% 53%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 14:44 → SEA 19:18AS 226 1h 15m Seattle SEA 20:33 → SLC 23:36AS 1459 6h 52m 85% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON