Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:50 am at Aspen)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 58%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: AA 6205 at 13:46, 58%.

Nonstops today


AA 6205 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 13:46	AUS 17:09	58%	19%	2.3%	58%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ASE 07:00 → IAH 10:47UA 5300 · flown by SkyWest	3h 33m Houston	IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa	7h 29m	95%	74%
United Details →	ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Denver	DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026	4h 50m	87%	69%
United Details →	ASE 08:32 → DEN 09:50UA 4687 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m Denver	DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270	7h 26m	97%	69%
American Details →	ASE 07:36 → DFW 10:57AA 6345 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:55 → AUS 15:00AA 3726 · flown by Envoy	6h 24m	94%	69%
Delta Details →	ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24DL 4133 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Los Angeles	LAX 15:55 → AUS 20:58DL 622	7h 55m	91%	68%
American Details →	ASE 10:31 → DFW 13:51AA 6388 · flown by SkyWest	3h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:23 → AUS 18:29AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	6h 58m	100%	68%
United Details →	ASE 13:24 → IAH 17:22UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Houston	IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621	7h 01m	90%	68%
United Details →	ASE 11:43 → IAH 15:40UA 5493 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Houston	IAH 18:50 → AUS 19:57UA 2674	7h 14m	94%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest	59m Denver	DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270	4h 26m	67%	47%
American Details →	ASE 10:31 → DFW 13:51AA 6388 · flown by SkyWest	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:40 → AUS 15:51AA 2884	4h 20m	66%	40%
American Details →	ASE 14:21 → DFW 17:40AA 6384 · flown by SkyWest	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:45 → AUS 19:56AA 616	4h 35m	67%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON