Today: OO 5589 at 14:25 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet today OO 5589 ASE 14:25 → DEN 15:41 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5770 ASE 09:15 → DEN 10:33 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5589 SkyWest	ASE 14:25	DEN 15:41	22%	6%	2.1%	no record
UA 4687 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 08:32	DEN 09:50	22%	10%	1.0%	90%worse than usual
UA 5766 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:30	DEN 08:48	23%	9%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
UA 5607 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 14:22	DEN 15:35	25%	7%	2.1%	69%
UA 4647 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 08:32	DEN 09:36	26%	10%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
UA 5778 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 17:10	DEN 18:23	27%	10%	1.6%	73%
UA 6011 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 18:12	DEN 19:25	28%	9%	1.8%	65%
UA 5776 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 15:25	DEN 16:38	30%	10%	1.3%	63%
UA 5772 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 11:32	DEN 12:45	30%	9%	2.0%	77%
UA 5774 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 13:07	DEN 14:20	30%	10%	2.0%	76%
UA 5770 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 09:15	DEN 10:33	32%	11%	1.3%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON