Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5300 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 5300 ASE 07:00 → IAH 10:47 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 5493 ASE 11:43 → IAH 15:40 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5300 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:00	IAH 10:47	17%	10%	2.1%	84%
UA 5702 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 13:24	IAH 17:22	23%	12%	1.3%	68%
UA 5493 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 11:43	IAH 15:40	28%	13%	2.1%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON