Today: UA 5851 at 08:18 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet today UA 5851 ASE 08:18 → LAX 09:39 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 4133 ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5851 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 08:18	LAX 09:39	17%	7%	1.0%	81%
UA 5940 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 19:15	LAX 20:43	25%	13%	2.7%	62%
AA 6387 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 16:30	LAX 17:49	28%	14%	3.2%	56%
DL 4133 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 12:03	LAX 13:24	33%	9%	1.1%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON