Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 6225 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 6225 ASE 07:25 → ORD 11:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest OO 4914 ASE 12:49 → ORD 16:40 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6225 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:25	ORD 11:31	10%	6%	1.9%	82%
OO 4631 SkyWest	ASE 08:24	ORD 12:18	13%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 6386 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 11:22	ORD 15:29	18%	10%	1.3%	69%
UA 5956 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 12:39	ORD 16:45	19%	14%	1.8%	72%
UA 4669 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 09:00	ORD 13:04	20%	10%	1.9%	71%
OO 4914 SkyWest	ASE 12:49	ORD 16:40	23%	13%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON