tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:24 am at Aspen)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: UA 4657 at 09:57, 32%.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4657 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 09:57 SFO 11:44 32% 15% 1.3% 88%worse than usual
UA 5745 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 09:40 SFO 11:19 33% 14% 1.3% 46%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:32 → DEN 09:36UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 7h 37m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Denver DEN 12:25 → SFO 14:09UA 1450 7h 39m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:32 → DEN 09:50UA 4687 · flown by SkyWest 1h 31m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 5h 32m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 6h 58m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:18 → LAX 09:39UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m Los Angeles LAX 13:28 → SFO 15:05UA 469 7h 47m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 3h 34m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 7h 33m 93% 69%
UnitedDetails → ASE 17:10 → DEN 18:23UA 5778 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 6h 46m 95% 67%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:00 → IAH 10:47UA 5300 · flown by SkyWest 1h 48m Houston IAH 12:35 → SFO 14:40UA 2611 8h 40m 90% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 55m Denver DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 4h 55m 73% 58%
UnitedDetails → ASE 19:15 → LAX 20:43UA 5940 · flown by SkyWest 51m Los Angeles LAX 21:34 → SFO 23:02UA 2056 4h 47m 73% 49%
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:15 → DEN 10:33UA 5770 · flown by SkyWest 48m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 4h 49m 49% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON