Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1137 ATL 09:03 → ALB 11:22 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 1053 ATL 15:35 → ALB 17:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1137 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:03	ALB 11:22	15%	2%	0.2%	85%
DL 2584 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:38	ALB 23:59	22%	5%	0.6%	75%
DL 1241 Delta	ATL 15:13	ALB 17:35	24%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 1053 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:35	ALB 17:59	25%	3%	0.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON