Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:04 am at Atlanta)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24% (calm day: 13%). Best bet: United via Denver, leaving 07:30, 56% on time.

Nonstops today


DL 4011 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 09:45	ASE 11:22	37%	13%	1.0%	77%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	3h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 17:12 → ASE 20:25DL 3704 · flown by SkyWest	9h 45m	96%	78%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	2h 39m Denver	DEN 15:07 → ASE 16:08UA 5773 · flown by SkyWest	6h 58m	96%	77%
American Details →	ATL 15:27 → ORD 16:55AA 4759 · flown by Republic	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 19:49 → ASE 21:56AA 6186 · flown by SkyWest	8h 29m	94%	76%
United Details →	ATL 15:30 → ORD 16:57UA 516	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 19:47 → ASE 22:00UA 5254 · flown by SkyWest	8h 30m	92%	75%
United Details →	ATL 16:22 → DEN 18:06UA 235	2h 19m Denver	DEN 20:25 → ASE 21:26UA 5781 · flown by SkyWest	7h 04m	94%	73%
American Details →	ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567	2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:28 → ASE 13:51AA 6384 · flown by SkyWest	7h 29m	92%	70%
American Details →	ATL 13:39 → DFW 15:10AA 1358	3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → ASE 20:17AA 6419 · flown by SkyWest	8h 38m	96%	69%
United Details →	ATL 07:30 → DEN 08:51UA 340	2h 27m Denver	DEN 11:18 → ASE 12:26UA 5769 · flown by SkyWest	6h 56m	95%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ATL 16:22 → DFW 17:54AA 1008	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → ASE 20:17AA 6419 · flown by SkyWest	5h 55m	67%	48%
American Details →	ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:50 → ASE 12:21AA 4912 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	61%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON