Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:56 am at Atlanta)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2945 at 21:16, 31%.

Nonstops today


DL 2945 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:16	ATW 22:31	31%	6%	0.6%	80%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ATL 19:53 → ORD 21:30AA 1372	1h 32m Chicago	ORD 23:02 → ATW 00:14 +1AA 3774 · flown by Envoy	5h 21m	82%	73%
Delta Details →	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	3h 42m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	7h 09m	99%	72%
United Details →	ATL 18:57 → ORD 20:23UA 1046	1h 37m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet	5h 26m	87%	70%
American Details →	ATL 12:13 → ORD 13:30AA 1363	3h 59m Chicago	ORD 17:29 → ATW 18:44AA 3410 · flown by Envoy	7h 31m	93%	70%
American Details →	ATL 14:55 → DFW 16:24AA 3104	3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy	8h 46m	95%	69%
Delta Details →	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	1h 42m Detroit	DTW 17:24 → ATW 17:50DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest	5h 03m	90%	65%
United Details →	ATL 11:29 → ORD 12:52UA 1239	2h 43m Chicago	ORD 15:35 → ATW 16:54UA 5633 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	99%	64%
Delta Details →	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	3h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 21:45 → ATW 22:58DL 4920 · flown by Endeavor	7h 20m	98%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	56m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	4h 26m	69%	51%
American Details →	ATL 17:34 → DFW 19:08AA 1376	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy	6h 07m	62%	45%
United Details →	ATL 15:30 → ORD 16:57UA 516	55m Chicago	ORD 17:52 → ATW 18:56UA 5987 · flown by SkyWest	4h 26m	67%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON