Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2976 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 2976 ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4211 ATL 16:32 → AUS 18:11 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2976 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	AUS 09:27	11%	2%	0.8%	94%
WN 510 Southwest	ATL 06:20	AUS 07:50	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4363 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 06:00	AUS 07:20	13%	2%	0.5%	98%worse than usual
DL 2886 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:43	AUS 11:03	17%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 2104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:33	AUS 13:54	17%	4%	0.9%	86%
DL 2011 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	AUS 12:25	18%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 1397 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:15	AUS 15:50	18%	5%	0.8%	80%
WN 191 Southwest	ATL 11:10	AUS 12:40	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1335 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	AUS 00:18	20%	4%	0.8%	82%
WN 4777 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 09:50	AUS 11:10	21%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 1491 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:50	AUS 17:19	23%	5%	0.8%	76%
DL 1170 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	AUS 20:22	26%	5%	0.8%	72%
DL 1081 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:45	AUS 22:07	26%	5%	0.8%	60%
WN 178 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 19:20	AUS 20:50	30%	6%	0.6%	56%
F9 4211 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:32	AUS 18:11	40%	14%	1.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON