Today: DL 2951 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet today DL 2951 ATL 08:10 → BDL 10:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2735 ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2951 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	BDL 10:30	11%	3%	0.2%	91%
DL 1082 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:22	BDL 12:45	18%	4%	0.2%	88%
DL 2739 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:56	BDL 16:16	19%	4%	0.2%	83%
DL 2504 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:56	BDL 21:19	20%	4%	0.7%	67%
DL 2765 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:31	BDL 22:56	21%	4%	0.7%	73%
DL 1011 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:31	BDL 23:54	21%	3%	0.7%	74%
DL 2735 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:34	BDL 17:59	21%	4%	0.2%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON