Today looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 21–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2257 ATL 21:44 → BHM 21:40 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 2371 ATL 18:59 → BHM 18:55 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2257 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:44	BHM 21:40	21%	6%	0.2%	83%
DL 1017 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:15	BHM 11:10	23%	3%	0.4%	91%worse than usual
DL 3012 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:31	BHM 13:24	24%	4%	0.3%	88%worse than usual
DL 3202 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:00	BHM 19:58	25%	6%	0.2%	74%
DL 1132 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	BHM 17:55	26%	4%	0.3%	76%
DL 3044 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:01	BHM 19:04	26%	6%	0.4%	86%worse than usual
DL 3163 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:14	BHM 15:10	26%	4%	0.3%	77%
DL 2484 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	BHM 16:22	27%	5%	0.4%	81%
DL 2371 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	BHM 18:55	29%	6%	0.4%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON