Today: WN 193 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet today WN 193 ATL 07:10 → BNA 07:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 194 ATL 13:05 → BNA 13:19 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 193 Southwest	ATL 07:10	BNA 07:24	9%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 179 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 07:10	BNA 07:15	10%	2%	0.2%	86%
DL 2250 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	BNA 07:38	11%	2%	0.6%	98%
DL 3069 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:31	BNA 08:41	12%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 3159 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:54	BNA 14:03	16%	3%	0.7%	79%
DL 790 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:25	BNA 14:38	16%	3%	0.7%	67%
DL 1155 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:57	BNA 10:09	17%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 3142 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:13	BNA 15:26	18%	4%	0.7%	75%
DL 1490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:31	BNA 18:52	19%	5%	0.7%	73%
WN 4686 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 14:30	BNA 14:35	23%	5%	0.5%	23%
DL 3002 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:30	BNA 21:44	23%	4%	0.7%	76%
DL 758 Delta	ATL 17:52	BNA 18:06	25%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 2867 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:21	BNA 11:30	26%	4%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
WN 196 Southwest	ATL 21:15	BNA 21:29	28%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 3232 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 21:30	BNA 21:40	28%	6%	0.5%	44%
WN 194 Southwest	ATL 13:05	BNA 13:19	33%	7%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON