Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2050 ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest DL 2334 ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2050 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:33	BUF 18:41	24%	6%	0.2%	75%
DL 2266 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:00	BUF 16:03	24%	5%	0.2%	82%
DL 2334 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:52	BUF 23:59	30%	6%	0.3%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON