Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:22 pm at Atlanta); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:55, is the safest bet: 45% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	54m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339	6h 53m	57%	45%
American Details →	ATL 16:34 → DFW 17:33AA 1008	1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:01 → BUR 20:21AA 2597	6h 47m	75%	44%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON