Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1010 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1010 ATL 08:20 → CAE 09:22 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 3008 ATL 20:09 → CAE 21:17 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1010 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	CAE 09:22	15%	3%	0.6%	96%worse than usual
DL 1590 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:06	CAE 11:14	16%	3%	1.6%	90%
DL 3193 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:05	CAE 15:06	18%	3%	1.3%	85%
DL 2944 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:00	CAE 12:59	18%	3%	1.8%	88%
DL 3029 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:39	CAE 23:43	22%	6%	1.2%	80%
DL 2153 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:08	CAE 17:13	23%	5%	1.2%	65%
DL 3032 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:15	CAE 17:23	23%	5%	1.3%	86%
DL 2193 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:42	CAE 18:50	23%	5%	1.3%	78%
DL 1516 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:46	CAE 18:49	24%	5%	1.3%	29%
DL 3008 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:09	CAE 21:17	26%	6%	1.3%	84%
DL 5091 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 10:05	CAE 11:14	7%	0%	0.0%	93%
DL 5001 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 20:10	CAE 21:19	40%	25%	3.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON